When legendary marine biologist Sylvia Earle started exploring the ocean 50 years she couldn’t fathom anything people could do to hurt the pristine blue waters that dominate the globe. In her 2009 TED Prize talk she says, “Then, not Jacques Perrin, Jacques Cousteau or Rachel Carson could imagine we could do anything to harm the ocean by what we put into it or what we took out of it.”
Back then, she says the leading oceanographic minds considered the world’s ocean to be a sea of Eden. But now she says, “We are facing a paradise lost.”
As the recipient of a TED Prize, she called upon the world to recognize that we have fished 90 percent of the big fish in the last 50 years. We are losing sharks, squid, blue fin tuna and other species at a rapid rate. There are dead zones appearing in the oceans that affect not just the animals and plants that call it home but all of us.
She says, “I hope for you help to explore and protect the wild ocean in ways that will restore the health and in so doing secure hope for human kind. Health to the ocean means health for us. And I hope Jill Tarter’s wish to engage Earthlings like us includes dolphins, whales and other sea creatures in this quest to look for intelligent life elsewhere in the universe. And I hope Jill that we will find evidence one day that there is intelligent life among humans on this planet.”
She says, “Nothing else will matter if we fail to protect the ocean. Our fate and the ocean are one.”
As the winner of a TED Prize, Dr. Earle received $100,000 and a wish to change the world.
Young Sea Turtle Swims in Sea of Plastic
After her inspiring talk the work to fulfill her wish began immediately. VeriSign (the web encryption software) founder Addison Fischer gave $1 million to fund a project which grew into Mission Blue Voyage. The TED Prize team worked with Fischer and other offers to build on Earle’s wish.
Then just 14 months after she made her wish Sylvia Earle led a four-day Galapagos sea-voyage of 100 peopleLeonardo DiCaprio, Edward Norton, Glenn Close, Elizabeth Banks, Steve Case, Ted Waitt, Bill Joy, Jackson Browne, Damien Rice, Chevy Chase, Jean-Michel Cousteau and 30 of the world’s leading marine scientists.
That’s where Jackson Browne began thinking about the role of the ocean in our lives and that connection to Sylvia Earle and her TED wish prompted him to go on to write his song, If I Could Be Anywhere.
Browne says he started the song on the Galapagos trip but finished it the night before presenting at TEDx Great Pacific Garbage Patch in November 2010.
His song grew out of a talk that Jeremy Jackson gave on the trip. Browne says, “When he said we need to change who we are I really got that.” He says we are going to have to eat differently, consume differently and travel differently because business as usual is hurting the planet and the ocean in particular.
Since that trip Browne, who has long been a supporter of the environment and social movements (including Occupy Wall Street) has begun touring on a bus powered by biodiesel and he has banned all disposable plastic backstage at his concerts.
He says, “I’m committed to carry as much of what I’ve learned here and heard here back into my everyday life and my work.”
Huffington Post Interview with Jackson Browne aboard the National Geographic Endeavor, April 2010.
Plastic in the Ocean
In 2010 Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute published a 22-year study that found a huge amount of plastic accumulation in the western North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea in addition to the Great Pacific Garbage Patch we’ve been hearing about for years. In this study, the researchers examined their haul of 6136 surface plankton net tows between 1986 and 2008. During that time they found over 60 percent of them contained some plastic. Students sifted through and hand-picked the millimeter-sized fragments with tweezers. They collected over 64,000 pieces in total.
So plastic does break down in the ocean. Generally it breaks into smaller and smaller pieces until plastic particles resemble jellyfish food, plankton or even grains of sand. And over 400 years the material does degrade fully. But in the meantime it is contributing to the deaths of albatrosses on low-lying atolls. It is killing turtles and other surface-dwelling creatures who get tangled or just slurp up some plastic with a fish they are eating. Larger plastic gets lodged in animal throats while babies often get fed plastic by their mothers which leads them to starve since there is no nutritional value in plastic.
Five Ocean Gyres and Home of Five Global Garbage Patches
After learning about the gyres and the vast amount of plastic pollution, Jackson Browne was moved to sing about the dire straits of the ocean.
]]>If I Could Be Anywhere
Music and Lyrics by: Jackson Browne
Sliding through the shimmering surface between two worlds
Standing at the centre of time as it uncurls
Cutting through a veil of illusion
Moving beyond past conclusions
Wondering if all my doubt and confusion will clearIf I could be anywhere,
If I could be anywhere
If I could be anywhere right now, I would want to be hereSearching for the future among the things we’re throwing away
Trying to see the world through the junk we produce every day
They say nothing lasts forever,
But all the plastic ever made is still here
No amount of closing our eyes will make it disappearIf I could be anywhere,
If I could be anywhere
If I could be anywhere in history, I would want to be hereThe Romans, the Spanish, the British, the Dutch
American exceptionalism, so out of touch
The folly of empire, repeating its course
Imposing its will and ruling by force
On and on through timeBut the world can’t take it, very much longer
We’re not gonna make it, unless we’re smarter and stronger
The world is gonna shake itself free of our greed somehowIf I could be anywhere,
If I could be anywhere in time
If I could be anywhere and change things, it would have to be now.They say nothing lasts forever,
but all the plastic ever made is still here
No amount of closing our eyes will make it disappearAnd the world can’t take it, very much longer
It’s not gonna make it, ‘less we’re smarter and stronger
The world is gonna shake itself free of our greed somehowAnd the world can’t take it, that you can see
If the oceans don’t make it, neither will we
The world is gonna shake itself all the way free somehowIf I could be anywhere, If I could be anywhere in time
If I could be anywhere and change the outcome, it would have to be now.
Beaches along the coasts of Washington and Oregon are treasure troves of flotsam for avid beachcombers. But one scientist says that what’s on its way to the west coast is unprecedented and those areas are totally unprepared.
Oceanographer Curtis Ebbesmeyer is a self-proclaimed expert on manmade stuff that floats the ocean blue. He even wrote the book on it, called Flotsametrics and the Floating World.
Now he says the first evidence of what could be 20 million tons of debris from coastal Japan is beginning to arrive. After the 9.0 earthquake and tsunami devastated the eastern coast of Japan last March, cars, houses, people and their belongings were swept out to sea. Still over 20,000 people are dead or reported missing.
Ebbesmeyer says, “We are not prepared for this. Nobody is prepared. Nobody has even thought through the dimensions.”
And prepared or not, the floating field of debris is on its way. A buoy that landed on a beach in northwest Washington may be the first evidence of the flotsam storm that’s brewing at sea.
3 Japanese Buoy Types Washing Ashore from Oregon to Alaska, Photo by John Ingraham
He estimates that 25 percent will sink as it floats along ocean currents. Another 25 percent could reach the west coast of the U.S. and Canada. Probably another 25 percent will enter into the Pacific Gyre and return to Japan but not for about six years. The rest will likely pass by Hawaii on the way to the Great Pacific Garbage Patch where it will join plastic refuse from all over the world.
The Path of Japan's Earthquake and Tsunami Debris As It Moves from Japan towards the U.S. West Coast. Click on the image to see the animation.
He says, “There’s never been a devastation on one continent that has moved off to the other continent and actually recorded.”
Because of the nuclear accident that followed the earthquake and tsunami, Ebbesmeyer is concerned that some of the Japanese flotsam could carry radioactive material.
Nir Barnea from NOAA says there is little cause for alarm. He expects most of what washes up on Washington and Oregon beaches to be lumber and some household items. He says, “We don’t expect any debris items that are exotic or unusual.”
But beachcombers are always looking for those unusual items. Frequently Japanese fishing floats wash ashore in Washington after a big storm. If and when beachcombers find any Japanese items they can report the finds to Ebbesmeyer who is tracking the arrivals online.
The big west coast arrival wasn’t expected for about two years. In October a Russian cargo ship spotted boats, refrigerators and large pieces of homes near the Midway Islands about 1,700 miles from Hawaii and about 300 miles further east than expected.
NASA Projects Debris Field Track
That sighting forced scientists to revise their estimates down from five years to two. The Japanese flotsam patch is roughly twice the size of Texas and heading on a direct course with the Washington and Oregon coast traveling at about 7 miles per hour.
Ebbesmeyer says get ready because lighter weight items like the black buoy that washed ashore near Neah Bay, WA will get to the U.S. faster. He says that if the items ride high in the water, are lightweight and have a lot of area exposed to wind, they can travel up to 20 miles per hour. That means some items from Japan could begin landing on beaches as early as next year.
Ebbesmeyer believes the debris landing area will be more spread out than predicted. He thinks beaches from southern Alaska to California will see personal items from broken Japanese lives.
And at a December 13 meeting he said, “All debris should be treated with a great reverence and respect.”
He adds, “As of December 30, 2011, beachcombers reported more than 23 buoys from 17 locations scattered between central Oregon to Kodiak Alaska. He even says that a woman named Jody Godoy traced the writing on one buoy to an oyster farm along the tsunami-ravaged coast.
Ebbesmeyer is a retired oceanographer who has tracked ice bergs, oil from the Exxon Valdez spill in Alaska and sewage outflow into Washington state’s Puget Sound. But he is known as the founder of Beachcombers Alert where he and his team track things that float, including tennis shoes, rubber duckies and messages in bottles.
]]>In 2006, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration began monitoring the Arctic region, creating an annual report card to mark rapid change occurring there. Five years in and the news isn’t good.
The 2011 Arctic Report Card shows that the entire region is changing dramatically. Ice, both on land and at sea, is melting at record pace. That is upsetting the Earth’s albedo, allowing more of the sun’s energy to be absorbed by dark, open water and not be reflected back to space as it bounces off snow and ice.
2011 Arctic Sea Ice Extent, courtesy of NOAA Arctic Report Card
According to the report card, “The 2011 minimum is the second lowest, only 0.16 million km2 greater than the 2007 record minimum.” Overall, the 2011 minimum reached on September 9 was 31% (2.08 million km2) smaller than the 1979-2000 average. The report says, “The last five summers (2007-2011) have experienced the five lowest minima in the satellite record, and the past decade (2002-2011) has experienced nine of the ten lowest minima.”
All of the newly exposed water is allowing atmospheric carbon dioxide to sink into the Arctic waters and it is changing the chemical makeup of the ocean. As a result, the Chukchi and Beaufort seas have lower pH values. In other words the waters are becoming more acidic, which makes it difficult for tiny sea animals that rely on calcium carbonate shells to survive. The higher acid level makes shell formation more difficult.
The report card says, “The increased amount of open water enhanced the uptake of CO2 from the atmosphere and the freshening of the upper ocean decreased alkalinity, inorganic carbon and calcium ion concentrations.” The melting sea ice exposed more water to the open air, allowing more atmospheric carbon dioxide to sink in the ocean, making the ocean more acidic. The report notes, “Although CO2 concentration in surface waters in 2010 and 2011 was not as high as in 2008, these waters have continued to be undersaturated with respect to aragonite.” By monitoring the aragonite levels scientists can determine if phytoplankton is having trouble forming shells.
In addition to watching the ocean and the atmosphere change, NOAA also monitors shorter term weather patterns and tracks the impact they have on the Arctic region as a whole. And the last few years, pressure over the North Pole shifted, pushing the coldest Arctic air far south to the United States and Europe while warmer air filtered over Greenland, rapidly speeding up the melt rate of glaciers there.
For the first time, the 2011 Arctic Report Card measured changes in Greenland. As a result of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) switching from positive to negative, caused unusually warm weather during Winter 2010-2011 and last summer. Those weather conditions in turn sped up the melt rate from the Greenland ice sheet.
The report says, “The area and duration of melting at the surface of the ice sheet in summer 2011 were the third highest since 1979.” According to satellite data, the Greenland ice sheet melted to its third lowest point since 1979 when record keeping began. Only 2010 and 2007 exceeded that ice loss.
NOAA principal deputy under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere Monica Medina says, “This report, by a team of 121 scientists from around the globe, concludes that the Arctic region continues to warm, with less sea ice and greater green vegetation.”
Using a familiar image of a stoplight, NOAA classified the five chapters of the report card according to level of change. The findings show that Atmosphere, Sea Ice & Ocean, Hydrology & Terrestrial Cryosphere have experienced significant change while Marine Ecosystems and Terrestrial Ecosystems have experienced some change. No coverage area received a greenlight, meaning little or no change.
The Report Card tracks the Arctic atmosphere, sea ice, biology, ocean, land, and Greenland. This year, new sections were added, including, greenhouse gases, ozone and ultraviolet radiation, ocean acidification, Arctic Ocean primary productivity, and lake ice.
It concludes, “Sea ice and ocean observations over the past decade (2001-2011) suggest that the Arctic Ocean climate has reached a new state, with characteristics different than those observed previously.”
And, “In 2011 there was continued widespread warming in the Arctic, where deviations from historical air temperatures are amplified by a factor of two or more relative to lower latitudes. This phenomenon, called Arctic Amplification, is primarily a consequence of increased summer sea ice loss and northward transport of heat by the atmosphere and ocean.”
]]>Surfers are a group of ocean super users. They spend a great deal of time in the water and on top of the waves. They notice slight variations. And they depend on a clean, safe environment to catch a wave and hang ten. As a result they are first responders when it comes to anything encroaching on their territory.
In Hawaii, development stands in the way of surfers chilling in the swells near the Kewalo Basin. Now a group of surfers that has failed to stop a big development project are going to measure the health of the water before construction so there will be a scientific baseline for them to compare. For the Friends of Kewalos, it’s a way to say “I told you so” in advance.
Working with Bob Richmond at the University of Hawaii Kewalo Marine Laboratory, the group bought a $2,000 instrument to measure temperature, salinity, acidity, oxygen levels and dissolved solids. They will continue to take readings regularly to monitor any changes that occur as a result of planned construction to increase the size of the marina.
Dr. Richmond says, “This is all information that really matters for the life in the ocean and also the people who are surfing in the ocean as well.”
Some surfers are worried that a bunch of “stuff” will get dredged up when construction begins and that will foul the crystal blue water where they like to surf. Ron Iwami says, “We figure during construction all the nasty things at the bottom will flow out and go out where we surf.”
Dr. Richmond sees the surfers as a valuable asset and one that has a vested interest in the outcome of this data collection.
Hawaii surfers aren’t the only ones monitoring the world’s waters.
The Surfrider Foundation tracks more than 60 campaigns surfers have going in the U.S. and Canada to make sure the ocean stays surf safe.
Ranging from water monitoring projects in Hawaii to fighting against plastic pollution, surfers are taking an active role in watching out for their waves.
Since 2006 the organization claims 172 victories. While some of those “victories” are to stop utilities from dumping waste or banning oil drilling in surfing waters, many wins involve getting local laws passed to ban plastic bags at grocery stores or to ban Styrofoam food containers.
The organization says it is trying to raise awareness about single-use plastics and clean water.
Ask any surfer and he will tell you the ocean is undergoing a seismic shift. Jellyfish swarms are becoming more common. Algal blooms are turning clear waters murky and choking the oxygen from the water when they die. Oceans are heating up and animal habitats are shifting. There is so much going on in the oceans and just not enough scientists to monitor all the changes.
U.S. surf champion Mary Setterholm says, “Surfing is being in harmony with the ocean.”
With such an intimate relationship with the water, surfers are among the best positioned to watch for significant changes in their surf spots. Perhaps it’s time they start documenting those changes as part of a global ocean change surfer network.
Surf’s up. Now let’s help keep it that way.
A couple of years ago San Diego surfers faced a fouling problem. But theirs was from garbage not construction. Surfers were offered free hepatitis A vaccines because runoff from Mexico and other waste from north of the border was making surfing downright dangerous. Doctors in 2009 warned that the hepatitis levels were high enough to make surfers sick.
]]>Few people have ever heard of the cookiecutter shark. They are prevalent in the deep, tropical ocean but they are not very large predators. In fact, the fish measures just a couple of feet long. But don’t be fooled by its size. This is a saw-toothed fish that bites dolphins, whales, nuclear submarine seals and now at least one person.
Maui man Mike Spalding becomes the first documented case of a human being bitten by the cookiecutter shark. He was swimming in deep water at night between the big island of Hawaii and Maui when he felt a pin prick in this chest followed by searing pain in his leg.
The tiny shark took a sizable chunk out of his calf muscle and the injury took months to heal. That was in 2009. Now several years later, scientists are taking a closer look at this small, ferocious shark.
The Florida Museum of Natural History houses a cookiecutter shark specimen but few people have ever heard of the species. the museum’s shark attack expert George Burgess says, “They have the biggest teeth of any shark in relation to the size of their jaws.”
As one of the co-authors of the new study that appears in the journal Pacific Science (PDF), Burgess wants people to know that humans entering deep ocean waters away from shore at twilight and nighttime hours should do so knowing that cookiecutter sharks are a potential danger, particularly during periods of strong moonlight, in areas of manmade illumination, or in the presence of bioluminescent organisms such as glowing squid.
Spalding’s attack happened around sunset during a 30-mile long distance swim. He says he began seeing the bright bioluminescence of squid before the shark attacked. These sharks hide among glowing squid because they have glowing spots on their skin. When a larger animal feeds on the squid, the shark goes in for a wounding bite.
Spalding was swimming through a group of cuttlefish when he was probably mistaken for a dolphin or whale.
The Monterey Bay Aquarium’s curator of field operations John O’Sullivan says, “These animals are very small and very aggressive in behavior. People say, ‘Thank God these things don’t get big.’” He’s been trying capture a live cookiecutter shark for several years because he is fascinated by the small shark’s interesting behavior. But he says it’s “turning out to be more difficult than our white shark program.”
The study was led by Randy Honebrink of the Hawaii Division of Aquatic Resources and co-authors include Robert Buch of the Florida Program for Shark Research at the Florida Museum and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Fisheries Service, and physician Peter Galpin of Maui Memorial Hospital.
]]>This video from May 2010 tells the tale of a gray whale lost, half a world away from home. Biologists immediately thought it was a hoax but after studying the 43-foot whale more closely they discovered that it must have gotten off it’s north-south Pacific Ocean migration track thanks to an ice-free Arctic a couple of summers ago.
Now, new research stemming from this historic sighting off the coast of Israel in the eastern Mediterranean has scientists suggesting that climate change is opening up the fabled Northwest Passage — not just to boaters and geo-political interest — but to animals and plants.
According to seabed core samples, plankton previously not spotted in the Atlantic for 800,000 first re-appeared in the Labrador Sea in 1999 and then in the Gulf of St. Lawrence two years later. Now it has taken root and spread as far south as New York.
Scientists see this one example of a wayward whale and the proliferation of ocean greenery as a clear sign that something is changing in the Arctic.
In a new report which is part of the larger CLAMER project about oceans and climate change, researchers say the lone gray whale’s presence in the Mediterranean “coincides with a shrinking of Arctic Sea ice due to climate change and suggests that climate change may allow gray whales to re-colonize the North Atlantic.”
During the 1800s the Atlantic population of gray whales was hunted to extinction. Only two populations of the endangered species exist, a small pod in the western Pacific and a larger group in the eastern Pacific, from which the whale in Israel was believed to be a member.
The Northwest Passage is a route through the freezing northern Canadian archipelago and has been sought after for explorers for over 500 years. Until recently it was considered the “fabled Northwest Passage” because it was locked in ice year-round. But in 1998 and again in 2007 the passage was ice-free for a brief time during the summer from end to end. That’s when marine biologists expect the whale went through.
Phillip Reid, a senior plankton research fellow at the Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science in Plymouth, England told the Associated Press, “The implications are enormous. It’s a threshold that has been crossed.”
Since the North Pacific and the North Atlantic have been virtually shut off to one another, each has developed its own biosystem. Reid says the last time there was a major incursion from the Pacific to the Atlantic was about 2 million years ago. That had a huge impact on the Atlantic, driving some species to extinction as the new arrivals dominated and won in the competition for food.
Reid’s study on plankton and the gray whale are part of almost 300 papers written over the last 13 years that are being synthesized and published as a book and documentary this year by the CLAMER project.
Right now the migration of one gray whale and two species of plankton is not much of a concern to Reid. But he says, “It’s the potential for further ones to come through if the Arctic opens. That’s the key message.”
Plankton is at the bottom of the food chain and is a major source of nutrients for many fish species. Scientists have studied the relationship between plankton and fish stocks for many years and they note that changes in plankton often coincide with big swings in fish stocks.
In the North Sea, studies have blamed changes in plankton for threats to fish-eating birds and the collapse of some fish stocks.
Katja Philippart from the Royal Netherlands Institute of Sea Research says changes in the ocean’s chemistry and temperature have grave impacts on fisheries, especially as species move northward searching for cooler waters.
Philippart heads the European Union-funded CLAMER project. She says, “We try to put the information on the table for people who have to make decisions.” She told the AP, “We don’t say whether it’s bad or good. We say there is a high potential for change.”
Even though since the mid-1990s intrepid adventurer sailors have tried to penetrate the treacherous trail through the Northwest Passage just a handful of people have successfully navigated their way from end to end when the sea ice retreats enough to allow safe passage. It stands to reason that if people are able to do this with some effort, then animals and plants are too.
After swimming off the coast of Israel for a few weeks, the gray whale who appeared malnourished and “not in good shape” according to researchers, was spotted near Spain 23 days later. But that’s the last report. No one has seen the whale 2010.
]]>For years scientists and politicians have been saying the sea is rising. And it is. But because the amount of sea level rise each year is measured in millimeters for many it seems insignificant and for some it seems downright laughable.
But new research this week confirms that sea levels have risen faster in the last century than they have in the last 2,000 years. By sifting through North Carolina sediment deposits and studying microfossil evidence and then comparing that data with detailed maps of sea levels and coastlines scientists are making the strongest case yet that sea level rise is something we should all think about.
Scientists link the rapid increase in rate of sea level rise to climate change. As the global average temperature inches up the ocean’s temperature also increases. When water heats up it expands. This thermal expansion explains a good chunk of the sea level rise we’ve witnessed in the last 100 years.
But the actual amount the seas have risen in the last century doesn’t amount to much — around 7 inches. That’s about two millimeters a year.
Geologist Benjamin Horton, one of the authors and director of University of Pennsylvania’s Sea Level Research Laboratory says, “Where the temperature goes up, sea level goes up. Where the temperature stabilizes, so does sea level. Where the temperature picks up in the 20th century, so does sea level.”
In the most detailed look yet at sea-level change along the east coast of the U.S., scientists have discovered that waters have risen far faster over the last century than at any time in the previous 2,000 years.
By studying fossils, they found that temperature and sea level rise were in lock step during that time.
The team found that sea level was relatively stable from 200 BC to 950 AD. But beginning in the 11th century, sea level rose by about half a millimeter each year for 400 years during a warm climate period known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Then sea level was stable again during a period, called the Little Ice Age, that persisted until the late 19th century. However since then, sea level has risen more than 2 millimeters per year on average, the steepest rate for more than 2,100 years.
Horton says, “Sea-level rise is a potentially disastrous outcome of climate change, as rising temperatures melt land-based ice and warm ocean waters.”
But are Al Gore’s predictions about an inundated Florida and climate refugees in coastal areas true? The short answer is maybe. And it all depends on several unpredictable factors — the rate of land ice melting and contributing to sea-level rise and catastrophic ice sheet collapse either in Greenland or Antarctica.
From studying the past Horton can’t predict the future but he says, “So for the 21st century when temperatures will rise, so will sea level.”
But as sea levels rise so does the volume of water the ocean can hold. Most scientists consider the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) to be insignificant. GIA explains the slight continental rebound that is ongoing since the weight of the ice during the last ice age has diminished. This land rise is about .3 millimeters per year.
Scientists add this to sea level measurements in order to calculate the true rise or adjusted rise. Steve Nerem the director of the Ice told FoxNews, “We have to account for the fact that the ocean basins are actually getting slightly bigger.” That means the water volume is actually expanding.
However a lawyer for the conservative think tank the Heartland Institute decided to make that tiny measurement into a big deal, calling all the science about climate change into question, saying, “There really is no reason to do this other than to advance a political agenda.”
It begs the question, if most people don’t seem concerned that sea level has risen 7 inches in 100 years, why are a few non-scientists quibbling over .3 millimeters (which can be scientifically explained)?
While Al Gore’s picture of a water-world future entices his detractors to call him an alarmist, history has shown that failure to adapt to the climate spells trouble for people. Take the Vikings.
They inhabited a warmer Greenland during a period of climate anomaly when the temperature was much warmer. They failed to prepare for a cold reality and were forced to flee during the Little Ice Age.
Unless a large land-based chunk of ice collapses and melts, adding immediate increase to global sea levels — which would swamp low-lying islands and nations like Bangladesh — those of us around now probably won’t live to see the harsh presence of major sea level rise.
But that doesn’t mean we should ignore it. Future generations will either look back and thank us or curse us for the action we take now.
While scientists can’t foresee the exact amount of sea level rise, many are saying to prepare for about 36 inches this century. That is five times more than was measured in the 20th Century.
The FoxNews story ends with a snarky statement from the lawyer Taylor, who calls Gore’s suggestion of a flooded New York tomfoolery. “If it were going to happen, he wouldn’t have bought his multi-million dollar mansion along the coast in California.”
I’m sure the Vikings said the same thing.
Though the average sea level rise over the last 100 years was about 2 millimeters each year, since 1993 that rate has increased to 3 millimeters per year, caused largely by thermal expansion and increased melting of Greenland’s ice sheet.
]]>For decades fishermen have been saying there’s no future in fishing. Environmentalists have been warning about overfishing and pollution harming the ocean’s delicate ecosystem. But so far the ocean has been able to absorb everything humans have thrown at it.
The summary of a new international report(PDF) says that we may be quickly reaching the limit of what the ocean will tolerate. The International Programme on the State of the Ocean (IPSO) convened the first-ever interdisciplinary meeting of ocean scientists. Their report, which has not been released in full, paints a grave picture of the future of the ocean if something doesn’t change.
The report identified three key stressors to the ocean — overfishing, pollution and climate change. They cause ocean acidification, anoxic areas or oxygen-free marine dead zones and ocean warming which have been associated with mass extinctions in the past.
Many nations are trying to improve their fishing practices so as to not wipe out entire fish species. And pollution standards are changing so that the ocean doesn’t have to take in so much run off that creates dead zones where no fish can live.
It is the third area — climate change — where the scientists unanimously say something needs to be done before an entire oceanic mass extinction begins.
Scientists say we are potentially looking at a mass extinction of marine life, the likes of which haven’t been seen since the dinosaur extinction 65 million years ago.
Chris Reid, Professor as the Marine Institute, University of Plymouth and co-author of the report says, “We are seeing levels of pH inthe oceans now that probably haven’t been experienced for 55 million years.”
The speed at which the ocean is changing is what has scientists concerned. They say that ocean is at high risk of entering a phase of extinction of marine species unprecedented in human history. And that those changes will be evident in 20-50 years, not hundreds of years in the future as previously thought.
IPSO Scientific Director Alex Rogers, who is also a Professor of Conservation Biology at the Department of Zoology, University of Oxford is struck by the rapid changes the ocean is experiencing.
He says coral reef ecosystems will likely be lost by the end of the century. And to him that qualifies as a mass extinction. Marine biologists believe there are about 9 million species of animals and plants associated with coral reefs.
Already scientists are seeing fish move north and south of their regular habitats. The fish in the tropics and at the polar extremes of the ocean have no place to go. So Dr. Rogers predicts there will be a large loss of fish in low and high latitudes just because of temperature change.
“If the ocean goes down. It’s game over.” — Dr. Alex Rogers, Scientific Director of IPSO
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Fish ear bones are just like tree rings. The otolith bone inside a fish’s ear records the creature’s growth. Micro slices of sliver-sized ear bones can give scientists clues to the chemistry of the water in which fish swim. They can measure carbon dioxide levels and one year after the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, researchers at University of South Florida are inspecting the tiny ear bones of different species of fish for signs of oil.
The answers they find may hold keys to restoring the Gulf of Mexico after the worst oil spill in U.S. history.
Dr. Ernst Peeble’s research team is looking to see if the growth rates of fish changed after coming into contact with oil in the gulf. They can also measure which species of fish were most affected by the spill and which are relatively unharmed.
BP promised $500 million over the next 10 years for research to study the effects of the oil spill that sent 4.9 million barrels of oil spewing unchecked into the Gulf of Mexico from April 20-July 15, 2010. So far, the ear bone science team has only seen $10 million of the $50 million it was promised.
A BP spokesman says that because the research is new, there are some growing pains associated with the projects. The oil company says it will fulfill its promise to fund research but it’s not clear on the time line.
For now, the researchers are in limbo, waiting for more funding to complete their work.
]]>One year after the Deepwater Horizon oil spill scientists believe the health of the Gulf of Mexico is back to where it was before the massive environmental disaster.
In a recent survey, most scientists agreed that the health of the Gulf is about 68 out of 100. That is almost in line with the pre-spill number of 71.
One marine scientist who runs an association who has BP as a client says that relative to the size of the Gulf of Mexico the oil spill and well blow out affected a rather small area.
Quentin Dokken from the Gulf of Mexico Association says the Macondo blow out was not the environmental disaster many say that it was.
He accompanied Associated Press reporter Rich Mathews on a dive to examine the artificial reef system attached to the submerged portion of oil rigs near the spill site. A year later, corals and other marine life seemed to have rebounded.
But not everyone agrees.
Paul Sammarco is pleased that it appears that life is returning to the disaster area. But he notes that the absence of large fish could mean that they were wiped out by the oil spill and subsequent use of an oil dispersant. He believes the evidence of small fish and coral returning to the area is a bit misleading.
Dr. Sammarco says, “What we don’t know right now are the sub-lethal effects.” He says scientists don’t have a clear picture of the bio-accumulation of petroleum hydrocarbons in sea life and don’t yet understand the complexity that will have on reproduction and other longer term consequences.
Several dozen scientists rated the health of the Gulf of Mexico to be a 68 on a scale of 1 to 100. Last summer the scientists placed the pre-spill health level at 71. Last fall they measured the health at 65.
While the overall health level is trending toward normal, scientists are still very worried about specific health indicators, including dolphins, oysters and the seafloor.
Throughout the first part of the year, reports of baby dolphins washing ashore dominated headlines about the continued environmental legacy of the worst oil spill in U.S. history.
Since February over 400 baby dolphins have been found all along the northern Gulf Coast. While scientists are not clear about the cause of this unusual mortality event, some of the dolphins tested did have oil on their carcasses or in their tissue.
Stillborn and dolphins just days old began washing ashore this winter. But scientists can’t definitively say that it was as a result of the BP oil spill.
]]>Workers in Japan have started dumping more than three million gallons of radioactive water into the Pacific Ocean. Tokyo Electric officials spent about two days dumping out all that water from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in northeastern Japan, following the devastating March 11 earthquake. That water contains unsafe levels of radioactive iodine and cesium but it is a necessary move to make room to store more radioactive water used to cool superheated fuel rods after the quake.
The water will disperse in the ocean and become less radioactive as it decays. Since the most common form of radioactive iodine loses half of its potency in just eight days radioactive water heading toward Hawaii and the U.S. mainland will be so diluted by the time it reaches the shores it likely won’t pose any risk.
Some concerned residents in Hawaii have stopped eating seafood and stopped drinking bottled water. Scientists say that is unnecessary at this point because it will take weeks or months — depending on ocean currents — for any radioactive water to reach detectable levels near the islands.
A physicist at the University of Hawaii at Manoa has already begun monitoring water off Waikiki Beach for any signs of radioactivity. So far, nothing has been observed. Henrieta Dulaiova expects some radioactive material to be detectable in Hawaiian waters in the coming weeks but she is not concerned about seafood or water contamination.
The three million gallons of water dumped from the Fukushima Daichi power plant is about enough to fill five Olympic-sized swimming pools. The Pacific Ocean holds enough water to fill about three trillion of those same pools. In other words, the size of the ocean will make radioactive water less of a threat to fish and people.
The Food and Drug Administration is carefully watching all fish and food imported to the U.S. from Japan, looking for any signs of radioactivity.
In Japan, radioactive food is unfortunately inevitable, but very manageable.
James Acton says the first radioactive fish has been found with unsafe levels of radioactive iodine and cesium. But he says radioactive contamination is a manageable problem because strict monitoring will keep dangerous food off of people’s tables.
The Carnegie Endowment nuclear physicist says that radioactive material released into the water and atmosphere is becoming so diluted already that even twenty miles away from the nuclear power plant, radiation levels are undetectable.
For those of us part way around the world, the risk of radioactive contamination is very low. On the west coast of the U.S. iodine-131 has been detected in milk but experts and public health officials haven’t raised any warnings that those amounts present any risk whatsoever. Several experts have been equating the amount of radiation in the air and in food to being about the same dose any airline passenger receives when going on a trip.
]]>Billionaire adventurer Richard Branson announced plans to travel to the deepest parts of the world’s oceans in a single-person submarine this week.
Sir Richard will pilot the one-manned Virgin Oceanic sub as he dives the Puerto Rico trench, located just off the coast of Puerto Rico, sometime in the next 24 months.
Fellow adventurer Chris Welch will act as his back up pilot and be the first human in 50 years to plumb the depths of the Marianas Trench, which plunges 36,000 feet below the surface of the South Pacific.
To date, no manned submersible vehicle has traveled more than 21,000 feet. Branson’s new sub, which was unveiled in Newport Beach, California this week can safely dive to 37,000 feet and operate unaided for up to 24 hours, according to the Virgin Oceanic website.
While Branson is hot to help commercialize space and is probably already planning tours to the bottom of the planet, there is a lot of science that this pioneering effort will generate.
He is working with the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego to collect water and animal samples associated with the deep dives. Scripps Institution department professor Doug Bartlett is an expert on microbial life in extreme environments and his knowledge will guide Branson’s team to collect samples during their five deep ocean dives.
Landers that will accompany Branson on his dive will be outfitted with science equipment to collect water and bottom sediment as well as film the deepwater submarine as it passes by. A day after the dives the sub will rendezvous with the landers and gather the data for analysis.
The Scripps team will then study all the samples brought back from the depths and look for any novel organisms as well as potentially beneficial enzymes or genes.
Scientists from University of Southern California, the University of Hawaii and the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute are also partnering with Virgin Oceanic on this unprecedented expedition of science and adventure.
Branson says that the sub will be pressure tested over the course of the next three months before the mission begins later this year. The sub is specially designed to withstand the 1,000 atmospheres of pressure found at the bottom of the deepest places on Earth, approximately 1,500 times the pressure of an airplane.
5 Dives 5 Oceans
1. Chris Welch dives the Marianas Trench — 7 miles down and the deepest spot on Earth.
2. Sir Richard Branson dives the Puerto Rico Trench — 5 miles down and the deepest spot in the Atlantic Ocean
3. Human pilot to the Molloy Deep — 3.5 miles down and the deepest spot in the Arctic Ocean
4. Human pilot to the Diamantina Deep– 5 miles down and the deepest spot in the Indian Ocean
5. Human pilot to the South Sandwich Trench — 4 miles down and the deepest spot in the Southern Ocean
]]>“We will unlock the wonders of the oceans still unknown to humankind or science.” — Sir Richard Branson
The earth’s climate is getting a checkup thanks to NASA’s Operation Ice Bridge. It’s a six year mission to study the earth’s polar region from on board an airplane. NASA scientist Tom Wagner explains the mission from the Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland.
While the space agency is known for it’s work in outer space, in recent years it has used satellites and other tools to monitor what is happening here on Earth. After Earth-pointing satellites first noticed a major shift at the poles, NASA has been tracking those changes.
Now, planes outfitted with a number of scientific instruments and sensors will begin measuring the height of ice to determine its thickness in the polar regions. Radar will be used to measure the seabed under the ice to see how fast it’s flowing into the ocean.
A gravimeter will measure the shape of seawater-filled cavities at the edge of some major fast-moving major glaciers while a
magetometer will help to see the shape of Earth’s crust and how oceans interact with the ice.
This six-year study will monitor the dramatic changes occurring at the poles, which are also causing changes and affecting climate around the world.
“We’re having an interesting experiment happen on Earth as these places melt.” — Dr. Tom Wagner, NASA Goddard Flight Center
Climate Fact: Greenland is able to grow broccoli for the first time.
]]>A fast-growing seaweed-like algae is smothering Hawaiian reefs, especially in Kaneohe Bay, near Honolulu. In an effort to slow the spread of the invasive plant, scientists have been raising baby sea urchins in a hatchery, getting them ready to battle the algae.
Raising urchins in captivity is very difficult because the larvae are microscopic and must remain suspended in the water column until they are big enough to settle on side or bottom of a container.
After three or four months the little urchins are ready to be planted on the reef, where they will happily gorge themselves on the algae. During the following six months they will double or triple in size as the much their way across the reef, cleaning off the algae and helping to restore balance to the delicate ecosystem.
For years Hawaiian pest controllers have used a special super-sucker to mop the algae off the reef but in 2009 they discovered that sea urchins can keep the invasive seaweed at bay. The first batch of 1,000 baby collector urchins was released recently. The goal is to ramp up urchin production so scientists can release another 20,000 baby urchins in April.
]]>Experienced sailors and seasoned meteorologists have the same nagging feeling — that something drastic is changing oceans around the world.
A Canadian sailing in a solo around-the-world race says he is disturbed by the horrendous conditions he has encountered in the southern oceans, including the near absence of large sea life.
During a harrowing leg from the tip of South Africa to New Zealand, Derek Hatfield says he saw only one dolphin and no whales. That area of the world should be teeming with sea life this time of year. He also reported battering winds and 25-foot waves which are unusual.
But ocean in that area has warmed about a half a degree in the last ten years. That is creating more fuel to power bigger storms and turning the unpredictable ocean unrecognizable.
In order to reduce his impact on the planet Hatfield is using solar, wind and hydro power instead of fossil fuels during the race.
]]>Cyclone Yasi barreled ashore on the Northeast edge of Queensland, Australia this week, where 190 mile-per-hour winds damaged towns guarding the gateway to the Great Barrier Reef. The category 5 cyclone — akin to a hurricane in the U.S. and a typhoon in Asia — was the biggest Australia has seen in over a century. Australian national troops are still trying assess the damage, which includes millions of dollars to sugar cane and banana plantations.
While the summer occurrence of a cyclone like this in Australia is not unusual, the perfect storm set up due to a strong La Nina ocean pattern and very high surface sea temperature, which helped to give the cyclone its energy.
Cyclone Yasi formed near the island of Fiji and blew west into the very warm Coral Sea, where the average sea surface temperature was well above 80 degrees, which is ideal for fueling a big tropical storm.
Just as Yasi was forcing people in northeastern Australia to hunker down, people across two-thirds of the U.S. were feeling the full force of the same La Nina but in a different way.
In the middle of winter, La Nina comes roaring across the U.S. like an icy freight train, delivering a frigid punch. This storm, which extended from New Mexico to Maine dumped over two feet of snow in many places, snarling airports and dragging snow-prone cities like Chicago to its knees.
But is this related to global warming?
Cyclone Yasi is not a direct piece of climate change evidence. But the higher than average sea surface temperatures are likely related to climate change. La Nina events historically bring floods and an increase in cyclones during the Australian storm season from November to April.
Alan Sharp, national manager, tropical cyclone warning services, of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology told Reuters, “We can’t say any particular cyclone is caused by climate change. There has been a slight trend towards more intense storms around the world.”
Scientists agree that there is a likely climate change link to the current La Nina in the form of higher sea surface temperatures. As the world’s oceans have warmed over recent decades that heating is giving monsoons and storms a little extra kick.
Now the naughty La Nina is being blamed for the Blizzard of 2011, which blanketed a large swath of the U.S. in feet of snow, inches of ice and brought major cities to a halt for several days.
Louis Uccellini, director of the government’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction told the Associated Press that this big snow event followed the classic La Nina pattern — moving from the Midwest to the Northeast and redeveloping off the eastern seaboard.
La Nina is a periodic cooling of the surface temperatures of the tropical Pacific Ocean, the opposite of the more well-known El Nino warming.
Both El Nino and La Nina patterns can have major impacts on weather around the world by changing the movement of winds and high and low pressure systems.
Meteorologists knew last fall that a sizable La Nina weather pattern was forming and that it was likely to be a harsh winter in much of the U.S.
Director Uccellini says that while the size and impact on populated areas the storm hit was significant the storm is not unlike other storms that have developed during similar winter weather patterns. He says the Blizzard of 2011 is not a product of climate change.
Mike Halpert, deputy director of the federal Climate Prediction Center says, “The storm is going where we would expect it, according to La Nina.”
The La Nina ocean pattern has peaked and is weakening but meteorologists warn that the little girl will likely stick around for another few months before oceans return to a neutral pattern.
]]>First, physicist Dr. Michio Kaku looks back over the natural disasters that rocked the world and does some future disaster forecasting as well.
2010 started with a major earthquake that killed 200,000 and 3 million homeless in Haiti. Then later in the year a gigantic quake in Chile knocked the Earth off its axis and shortened our 24-hour day by one micro-second. Dr. Kaku insists that the planet is not trying to seek revenge on the human species, which has also been very busy this year.
Top Bio Stories
According to Genetic Engineering & Biotechnology News 2010 was a big year for biology. Last year third-generation gene sequencers came to market which opened the door to generate DNA sequences as well as epigenetic information with single-molecule sensitivity in real time. This was also the year that synthetic biology became mainstream. J. Craig Venter created a bacteria from scratch, making Synthia the first fully synthetic, self-replicating cell.
2010 Also saw the gene patent wars heat up. In the Spring a New York court declared the patent on the breast cancer genes BRCA1 and 2 invalid. This case will likely end up before the U.S. Supreme Court before it’s finished but the Justice Department now supports the lower court’s ruling, saying that naturally occurring phenomena such as genes should not be subject to intellectual property laws.
Stem cells, aging and cancer rounded out a full year for biotech. After President Obama repealed former President Bush’s ban on research involving embryonic stem cells this year a federal court judge placed the future of embryonic stem cell research in limbo again.
After all the excitement about the anti-aging benefits of sirtuins, the chemical found in red wine, is still not well understood. A couple of drug candidates involving the activator and inhibitor are in clinical trials but haven’t made the medical strides they promised last year.
A cancer vaccine called Provenge made it to market this year to help treat prostate cancer. Several other treatments are in late stage clinical trials and could be ready next year.
Top Physics and Space stories
One of the most inspiring space endeavors to finish a rocky trip in 2010 was the Japanese Hayabusa mission. It rendezvoused with asteroid Itokawa in 2005 after being pummeled by a large solar flare in 2003. The goal was to gather dust from the asteroid and bring it back to Earth.
After all the technical mishaps Japanese researchers didn’t hold much faith that the probe would return with any dust. But after a triumphant return to Earth in June, a few specks of the asteroid were identified. Now scientists have another tool to understand the beginnings of our solar system.
But 2010 was all about space water. Remember water on Mars? That was so last year. This year confirmed water on the moon and on one of Saturn’s moons.
Saturn's Moon Enceladus, as viewed from NASA's Cassini Spacecraft
The ever-impressive NASA Cassini Equinox mission continues to blow us away with amazing imagery from the Saturnian system, including what appears to be liquid water shooting from the south pole of Saturn’s moon Enceladus. The spacecraft has been orbiting the ringed gas giant since 2004, buzzing past its many moons and delivering some of the most detailed observations of this iconic planet we have ever seen.
But closer to home, NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter found that the moon not only has water ice stored in the shadows of its deepest and darkest craters, but there appears to be a lot of water just below the surface.
Discovery News asks how much water is there.
Writer Ian O’Neill says, “Bucketloads. 600 million gallons stashed away in 40 craters as measured by a NASA instrument that flew on board the Indian Chandrayaan-1 mission. But how much water is 600 million gallons? That’s enough water to fulfill Seattle’s water needs for a whole year… or enough water to manufacture 588 billion bags of Cool Ranch Doritos (according to one commenter who obviously has way too much time on his hands).”
(Artist rendering of moon landing...not a real picture)
2010 was the year that President Obama canceled the Constellation manned space program and scrapped plans to go to the moon. But it was also the year that commercial space flight became a reality. Leading the way into space is Virgin Galactic. SpaceX and Orbital Sciences are helping to privatize the space industry and will be fulfilling space services for NASA once the shuttle program is retired in early 2011.
But the biggest space story of the year was happening right here on Earth. Or rather under the Earth at the European nuclear science lab CERN. There particle physicists in search of the elusive Higgs Boson or God particle have successfully trapped antimatter for the first time.
Physicists capture antihydrogen for the first time in 2010
Capturing antihydrogen will allow physicists to study the beginning of the universe and try to figure out why if both matter and antimatter were created in equal amounts during the Big Bang that matter is all that mattered for its formation.
Top Stories by Accident
Science makes some its greatest discoveries through accidental encounters and without looking. A few stories found their way to us that way this year, mostly from the animal kingdom.
The most distressing story resulted from pictures of oil covered seabirds struggling in the slimy Gulf of Mexico after the BP Horizon Deepwater oil rig explosion and disaster. Months later, clean up efforts are still underway and scientists are looking at long term consequences of the largest oil spill in U.S. history.
But across the world, a two-foot long isopod — that looks like something Hollywood cooked up for a sci-fi movie — hitched a ride to the surface aboard a deep sea submarine, giving the world a glimpse of this rare giant creature.
Deep Ocean Submarine Finds Giant Hitchiking Isopod
New findings spark hope that endangered species are more abundant than previously thought.
Until recently scientists have been limited in their exploration of the ocean by depths SCUBA divers can safely travel. And deep water submersible vehicles tend to focus on the deep ocean, below 500 feet. So the in between areas of 200-500 feet remain largely unknown.
But recent advances in technical diving and rebreathers is allowing a new glimpse at low-light reefs, where much to scientists surprise life is thriving. In fact, rare and endangered species are doing well deeper down than those in shallow waters.
Scientists caution that the excitement of this discovery is tempered by looming threats of pollution, overfishing and climate change that could begin hurting this healthy ecosystem. They say that fish may be retreating to deeper depths as their habitats become inhospitable.
]]>A team of scientists is on a mission to provide 3D maps and models of the wreckage of the Titanic before it disappears. The nearly 100 year old shipwreck is falling apart. To preserve the famous ship as it is the Waitt Institute is using side-sensing autonomous underwater vehicles to map the Titanic.
Oceanographers from Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution join the expedition along with Waitt Institute and RMS Titanic, Inc. to create the most comprehensive map of the site to date.
The Titanic sank in the North Atlantic after striking an iceberg in 1912. The wreck was discovered on September 1, 1985.
Follow the expedition on Facebook and follow the action on Twitter
Visit the official website: ExpeditionTitanic.com
]]>After one of their research vessels returned from the Gulf, University of South Florida scientists say they found significant amounts of toxic oil sitting on the Gulf floor – and it is killing sea life.
Small oil droplets speckle the Gulf floor and are hard to detect. Best seen under ultraviolet light these droplets were broken apart by the chemical dispersant BP used during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.
A new government report recently declared that 75 percent of the oil is gone but USF scientists think it’s just more difficult to find because the dispersant has broken it apart and the oil has drifted farther east.
The report, which was released earlier this month, says 25 percent of oil was burned, skimmed or recovered. Twenty five percent evaporated. Another 24 percent dispersed naturally or by using chemicals. And the remaining 26 percent remains in the environment.
That residual oil at the 26 percent level represents five Exxon-Valdez quantities of oil released into the Gulf of Mexico and still there these many months later.” — Ian MacDonald, USF oceanographer.
An USF report discovered that microscopic sealife contains oil. Marine geochemist David Hollander says oil found in phytoplankton could affect the entire ecosystem of the Gulf.
A report by University of Georgia scientists also refutes the government report that most of the oil is gone. They analyzed the government data and believe up to 90 percent of the released oil remains in the environment, most of it in deep underwater in plumes.
]]>A joint report put out by NOAA and the UK Met Office have looked at the atmospheric and ocean research of 300 scientists around the world and concludes global warming is a fact.
Scientists from 48 countries say 10 indicators that are related to surface temperatures all tell the same story: Global warming is undeniable.
For at least the last 50 years, the world has been heating up and the last decade was officially the hottest on record.
The 10 Indicators:
1. Ocean Heat Content, increasing
2. Temperature Over Land, increasing
3. Sea Level, increasing
4. Sea Surface Temperature, increasing
5. Temperature Over Oceans, increasing
6. Humidity, increasing
7. Air Temperature Near the Surface, increasing
8. Sea Ice, decreasing
9. Snow Cover, decreasing
10. Glaciers, decreasing
]]>“For the first time, and in a single compelling comparison, the analysis brings together multiple observational records from the top of the atmosphere to the depths of the ocean,” — Dr. Jane Lubchenco, NOAA Administrator
Marine biologists believe they have discovered several new species of underwater creatures, including sponges, corals and sea stars
]]>
Simulation of BP Oil Spill, Day 360, courtesy of University of Hawaii
University of Hawaii scientists Researchers Axel Timmermann and Fabian Schloesser have been trying to answer a question that few will even dare to ask. They want to how not if but when the oil from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill will round the tip of Florida and race up the east coast, polluting beaches and destroying fisheries along the Atlantic seaboard.
Their answer may frighten many. After some serious number crunching and based on historical ocean current movement, they determined that the entire eastern shoreline of the U.S. will see signs of the BP oil spill within the next three months. And a year from he accident — April 20, 2011 — the oil will stretch across the Gulf of Mexico, up the Atlantic and be half way to Europe.
“After one year, about 20 percent of the particles initially released at the Deepwater Horizon location have been transported through the Straits of Florida and into the open Atlantic.” — Axel Timmermann, University of Hawaii at Manoa oceanographer
The School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology Computer Simulation
Disclaimer: The dispersal of the particles does not capture such effects as oil coagulation, formation of tar balls, chemical and microbial degradation. Computed surface concentrations relative to the actual spill may therefore be overestimated. The animation, thus, is not a detailed, specific prediction, but rather a scenario that could help guide research and mitigation efforts.
This simulation is also based on the estimated flow of oil from the spill of 50,000 barrels a day for 150 days.
]]>University of Florida’s Neil Hammerschlag is studying whether sharks along the Gulf Coast of Florida can sense oil and move away from it.
Hurley the hammerhead shark disappeared from satellite tracking two days after the Deepwater Horizon oil spill as researchers were studying migration patterns of these misunderstood fish.
Now when the sharks for this study are caught and tagged, a tissue and blood sample is also taken and tested for hydrocarbons to see if they are absorbing any oil from the ongoing BP oil disaster.
There is likely to be enough work keeping researchers busy studying the effects of oil on sharks for decades.
A marine biologist from the National Aquarium in Baltimore is heading to Florida to study the potential impact of the BP oil spill near Sarasota.
National Aquarium’s Erik Rifkin wants to study the ecological disaster that the BP oil spill caused. He’s joined forces with scientists from Johns Hopkins and the Mote Marine Laboratory in Florida.
The team will be deploying 100 devices to detect water pollution near Sarasota, Florida, an area that has not been affected by the oil spill yet. He says positioning the collectors there will help establish a baseline before the oil reaches that area. That way they can measure the impact if and when the oil does flow that way.
Even NASA is getting in on the animal cleanup action. Besides providing satellite images to help contain surface oil as it nears barrier islands near Louisiana, the first sea turtle hatchlings whose eggs were evacuated from the Gulf Coast oil spill to Florida’s Kennedy Space Center have been released into the Atlantic Ocean.
The Virginia Aquarium has been sending its staff down to New Orleans to help clean oil off stranded sea turtles. The aquarium’s stranding team is getting a first-hand look at the effects of oil on the keystone species of sea turtles.
For now members of the team are going to the turtles but soon the turtles may go to the Virginia Aquarium for rehabilitation.
“We expect to be dealing with the after effects of this for well over a year.” — Mark Swingle, Virginia Aquarium director of research and conservation
But it’s not just scientists and citizen scientists who are concerned about the effects of oil on marine life.
Even Federal Express is helping out.
The shipping company will work with the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation to ship up to 70,000 loggerhead sea turtle eggs from the shores of the Gulf of Mexico to the Atlantic coast this summer, in an effort to move the eggs to the Kennedy Space Center at Cape Canaveral.
]]>With a tight new cap freshly installed on its leaking well in the Gulf of Mexico, BP planned gradual tests starting Tuesday to see if the device can stop oil from pouring into the sea for the first time in nearly three months.
The next step will be to slowly close the valves on that cap to see if it can withstand the pressure of the oil pushing out of the seabed.
“The goal is to slowly close that down and understand the changes in pressure.” — National Incident Commander Admiral Thad Allen
Some scientists, including Energy Secretary Steven Chu and U.S. Geological Survey’s Marcia McNutt are worried that when the new cap is tightly fitted, the pressure of oil trying to escape will cause tiny ruptures in the pipeline and cause oil to leak through rock formations in the seabed.
Update
A pivotal moment in the Gulf oil crisis hit an unexpected snag Tuesday evening when officials announced they needed more time before they could begin choking off the geyser of crude at the bottom of the sea.
]]>Robotic submarines removed the cap from the gushing well in the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, beginning a period of at least two days when oil will flow freely into the sea.
And BP isn’t convinced that putting the new Top Hat Number 10 cap on the leaking wellhead will solve the problem. If the new cap fails, the company is prepared to go to Plan B — placing a Lower Marine Riser Package (LMRP) cap on the damaged riser.
BP spokesman Mark Proegler told the Associated Press that he cap was pulled off Saturday so workers could begin clamping on a dome that can capture more of the oil and funnel it up to collection ships on the surface.
This move makes the worst oil spill in U.S. history even worse — at least until the new containment dome can be fitted, sometime early this week.
But BP is confident by removing the leaking cap and replacing it with a one that fits more tightly, less oil will leak into the Gulf as drilling on the relief well continues.
“Over the next two weeks or so we’ll get to about 60,000-80,000 barrels a day of containment.”– BP Senior Vice President Kent Wells
]]>
The BP oil leak could be completely contained as early as Monday if a new, tighter cap can be fitted over the blown-out well, the government official in charge of the crisis said Friday in some of the most encouraging news to come out of the Gulf in the two and half months since the disaster struck.
After several failures to cap the leaking oil gusher 5,000 feet below the Gulf of Mexico, BP is going to install a new cap, known as Top Hat Number 10 this weekend, in an effort to contain the oil spewing into the gulf.
Since the spill on April 20, underwater robots have done most of the heavy lifting at these depths. They will cut the damaged cap and replace it with the new 75-ton solution. While this will contain most of the oil, it will not stop the leak. The leak will stop when the oil company completes drilling of a relief well, sometime in early August.
A 175-foot low-flying blimp also joined the fight this week. It will seek out oily hotspots from the air so a new ship with actor Kevin Costner’s oil from water separation device can start cleaning up the surface of the Gulf.
Still 1.5-2.5 million gallons per day continue leaking leaking from the Horizon Deepwater oil disaster. When the robots uncap the well the oil and gas will rush into the gulf at full force –which scientists estimate at around 3.4 million gallons per day — until the new cap can be placed, hopefully by July 12.
]]>“Everything done at that site is very much harder than anyone expects,” he said. Overton said putting on the new cap carries risks: “Is replacing the cap going to do more damage than leaving it in place, or are you going to cause problems that you can’t take care of?” — Louisiana State University environmental sciences professor Ed Overton
“I’ve been to all the oil spill conferences around he country and all I see are booms and the latest helicopter. But I’ve never seen one machine that deals with getting the oil out. That’s me.” — Kevin Costner
Actor Kevin Costner was visibly frustrated when he testified before Congress earlier this month about the lack of ingenuity he was seeing when it comes to cleaning up the Horizon Deepwater oil spill which began on April 20. His $24 million idea uses a centrifuge to suck in polluted water and separate the oil then spit out the cleaned seawater.
And this week BP has signed on to use 32 of Costner’s devices — which can unmix oil and water at a rate of up to 200 gallons per machine per minute — to help clean up some of the oil that is polluting the Gulf of Mexico.
“It may seem an unlikely scenario that I’m the one delivering this technology at this moment in time. but from where I’m sitting it’s equally inconceivable that these machines are not already in place.” — Kevin Costner
Costner has been developing his centrifuge technology over the past 15 years, after watchingthe devastation following the Exxon Valdez spill in Alaska in 1989.
Physicist Michio Kaku talked to CBS News about Costner’s solution and other innovations in late May.
Watch CBS News Videos Online
“In chemistry class we learned that oil and water don’t mix. Everybody knows that. But that’s not really true.” — Physicist Michio Kaku
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Over the last few weeks, scientists — including those on the government’s Flow Rate Technical Panel — have been unable to pinpoint how many gallons of oil are flooding the Gulf of Mexico.
Ira Leifer who is part of a 12-scientist panel guiding the Obama administration as it tries to get a handle on how much oil is flowing from the ruptured well 5,000 feet below the surface in the nation’s worst environmental disaster.
For several weeks BP estimated that about 1,000 barrels of oil a day were leaking into the Gulf of Mexico. Then that number started to rise as the days wore on. In the last several weeks, the official number has been raised to 40,000 barrels a day. But the estimate does have a higher range — of 100,000 barrels a day, which Dr. Leifer says is BP’s worst case scenario. And he sees no reason to doubt those numbers.
Unfortunately scientists do not have all the data they need to take good measurements. So far BP has supplied the technical panel with 45 minutes of video and a few other documents but not enough data to determine how much oil is really flowing.
“We do not know what was happening five minutes before. We do not know what was happening five minutes afterwards.” — Ira Leifer, UC Santa Barbara
Add to that the complication that this is not a standard well. Besides the pressure differentials at this great depth, this well consists of a pipe punched into a geologic formation, which means the flow rate can fluctuate over time.
This resevoir is massive. It could easily flow that kind of oil for the next 20 or 30 years if it was left to go unattended. — Ira Leifer
100,000 barrels of oil is the equivalent of 4.2 million gallons.
Dr. Leifer is quick to point out that there is no way to say for sure that is how much oil is dumping into the Gulf but that is because he and other scientists need more data.
Even as scientists been creating and revising flow rate estimates for weeks, a new undated BP internal document was released this week showing that the company placed its worst case scenario at 100,000 barrels of oil a day.
PBS has created a Leak Meter to monitor the flow of oil but it needs to start with the right data to be accurate (numbers below are gross estimate)
After a 13-month journey around North and South America the crew of Ocean Watch is returning to Seattle today. They have sailed around the Americas raising awareness about ocean health and conducting a few science experiments along the way.
Join the conversation here tomorrow as the crew of Ocean Watch participates the Marine Health Symposium at University of Washington in Seattle. Much of the symposium will be live-streamed from 1:00-5:30 p.m. PDT.
]]>Seven Louisiana fishermen reported getting sick after exposure to the oil dispersant that is being used to thin the oil slick on the Gulf of Mexico.
Nalco, the company that makes Corexit, the dispersant used after the April 20 Horizon Deepwater oil spill, says it has faith in its product. It insists that the product is biodegradable and that when it breaks down into tiny droplets, microscopic organisms then eat the oil and dispersant, cleaning the ocean in the process.
“The use of COREXIT dispersants to break up the oil in the Gulf of Mexico has been widely acknowledged by government officials as a safe, effective and proven response. Its ingredients rapidly biodegrade, do not bio-accumulate and are commonly found in popular household products. And because the dispersant works by spreading oil particles evenly through the water column, it is extremely unlikely that individuals along the Gulf Coast would come into contact with it.” — Nalco Chief Technology Officer, Dr. Manian Ramesh
But after health concerns began emerging the EPA is trying to curb the use of Corexit. To date, BP has sprayed more than one million gallons of the dispersant to prevent a massive oil slick from reaching the shorelines of the gulf states.
]]>British Petroleum’s oil leak is dumping an Exxon Valdez worth of oil into the Gulf of Mexico every 8-10 days, according to new estimates by scientists who are watching the black geyser a mile beneath the surface very closely.
New estimates show the damaged well leaking twice as much oil as previously estimated but no one knows for sure.
Even scientists disagree–ranging from 12,000-50,000 barrels of oil a day. The one thing they do agree on is that BP has been grossly underestimating the damage so far.
On June 3, University of Washington scientists as part of a federal panel of experts placed the leak at 12,000-19,000 barrels a day before BP cut the riser pipe and capped it. Other scientists think those estimates are too conservative, placing the leak at between 25,000 and 50,000 barrels a day. But the new official estimate from the U.S. Geological Survey is somewhere between 20,000 and 40,000 barrels of oil, much higher than BP’s original estimate of 5,000 barrels of oil a day.
The Washington Post has a story today about the varied estimates and explains why it is important to find out how much oil has polluted the Gulf of Mexico.
Reuters has the story as Jon Decker reports.
]]>An autonomous underwater vehicle from the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute just returned from gathering important data about the gulf Oil spill as scientists begin to help figure out how much oil is continuing to leak day by day and what’s happening almost a mile below the surface of the Gulf of Mexico.
]]>After over a month of spewing millions of gallons of oil deep into the Gulf of Mexico, BP has begun it’s “top kill” approach which requires jamming mud into the hole created on April 20. The trick is that the pressure of the mud being pushed into the pipe to stem the oil flow must exceed the pressure of the oil pouring out.
Scientists estimate that pressure to be about 5,000 psi (pounds per square inch)–more pressure than a scuba tank. And this procedure may force the oil to find new ways to escape through rock formations or by blowing a new hole in the pipe.
]]>Researchers at University of Alaska Fairbanks are afraid the permafrost in the Siberian continental shelf is beginning to fail. If it does the trapped methane below will release into the ocean and eventually into the atmosphere. Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas — about 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide.
Dr. Natalia Shakhova says the concentrations of atmospheric methane measured in the Arctic are the highest in 400,000 years. More research is underway to determine how much methane is capped below the permafrost under the Arctic Ocean so scientists can better understand the near and long term consequences to the sudden release of trapped methane.
University of Alaska Fairbanks Professor Katey Walter Anthony takes us onto a frozen lake in Fairbanks, AK to demonstrate why methane gas has “exploded” onto the climate change scene. DON’T TRY THIS AT HOME.
]]>The 8.8 magnitude earthquake that struck near the city of Concepcion, Chile over the weekend is the largest recorded quake in 50 years. Though more people were killed and left homeless after the Haiti earthquake in January, this quake was about 500 times more powerful.
Cameras captured the earthquake as it happened on Saturday.
The earthquake triggered tsunamis up and down the Chilean coast and warnings went out to places as far away as Japan and the west coast of the U.S.
Islands off the coast of Chile felt the full impact of the big temblor as 30-foot tsunami waves crashed through coastal villages, ripping homes apart and sending residents fleeing into the hills. Over 700 people are confirmed dead and more than two million are left homeless as aftershocks continue to keep the nation on edge.
Nearly 4,700 miles away a standing wave or seiche formed in Lake Ponchatrain near New Orleans, Louisiana, believed to be caused by the earthquake in Chile, which ties for the fifth strongest quake recorded since 1900. Chile also experienced the largest quake ever recorded — a 9.5 magnitude in 1960.
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The federal agencies submitted their budget requests to Congress this week, marking a big moment for all things science. According to preliminary reports about $148 billion of the Presidents full $3.8 trillion budget is heading for scientific research programs.
Photo courtesy of Brookhaven National Laboratory
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The man who is planning to send tourists to space is diving into the world of ocean exploration. The first underwater plane is designed for use by Sir Richard Branson’s guests who visit his private Caribbean island.
This fun toy could be the beginning of a new Virgin brand — this called one Virgin Oceanic.
After taking possession of the new Necker Nymph later this month Branson will continue on adapting jet-fighter technology for a new class of submarine, capable of plumbing the depths of the 35,000-foot Mariana Trench.
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Much of the country and for that matter the Northern Hemisphere has been locked in an icy weather pattern that sent records tumbling and even forced Florida produce growers to seal oranges and strawberries in ice to protect them from frigid temperatures.
Some scientists are saying this is yet another sign of the extreme temperature fluctuations that climate change is bringing. Others are quick to dismiss this cold stretch as evidence of anything but a cold winter.
But there is a climate force at work. Called the Arctic Oscillation, scientists noticed that the air pressure that usually remains high at the top of the world weakened and became very low in December. That allowed the coldest Arctic air to flow south and cover large swaths of the Northern Hemisphere.
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Evidence of global warming is hitting the Arctic harder than anywhere else. The rate of climate change is twice that of the rest of the world.
And, now scientists are discovering the Arctic region plays an important role in capturing atmospheric carbon, both in the ocean and on land.
But that delicate system might be in jeopardy as the polar ice caps melt, triggering a feedback loop of increased warming and melting.
As permafrost melts for the first time ever, there might be a big threat looming–methane–which could help convert the Arctic carbon sink into a big greenhouse gas emitter.
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Visualization of a river bed created using VisTrails, a system developed by University of Utah computer scientists Photo by: Juliana Freire and Claudio Silva, University of Utah
A two-year experiment to build a framework to analyze the massive amount of data scientists are collecting will push research to better understand our planet, our bodies and the limits of the Internet.
The National Science Foundation initiative called Cluster Exploratory or the CLuE program is a partnership between I.B.M. and Google to put scientists to work solving the problem of how to deal with so much information.
The answer? Cloud computing. Using virtual locations online to cope with the large data stream will allow science to answer some big and complex questions.
Top 8 in the Science Cloud:
Sloan Digital Sky Survey–obtained deep, multi-color images covering more than a quarter of the sky and created 3-dimensional maps containing more than 930,000 galaxies and more than 120,000 quasars.
Visible Human–is an anatomical data set licensed from the National Library of Medicine, Visible Human Project.
IRIS Seismology Database–allows you to monitor global earthquakes in near real-time, visit seismic stations around the world, and search the web for earthquake or region-related information.
Protein Data Bank–contains information about experimentally-determined structures of proteins, nucleic acids, and complex assemblies.
Linguistic Data Consortium–supports language-related education, research and technology development by creating and sharing linguistic resources.
TerraFly–View images and data anywhere in the United States and in much of the World.
Large Synoptic Survey Telescope–A large aperture, wide field survey telescope and 3200 Megapixel camera to image faint astronomical objects across the sky.
Open Topography–provides integrated access to high-resolution topographic data and web-based processing tools as well as enables its user community to share knowledge, resources and build science collaborations.
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The biggest business lobby in the U.S. is pushing for the EPA to hold a public hearing to debate the science of global warming.
The move, calling for the Scopes monkey trial of the 21st Century, is proving too much for some chamber members, from big utilities to Nike and Johnson & Johnson.
Yesterday, the EPA announced it was moving forward with its plan to regulate stationary sources of greenhouse gas, including some 14,000 coal-fired power plants and refineries.
Now the ball is back in the chamber’s court and it’s time for it to decide whether it wants to sue the EPA and try to put the science on trial.
REALscience dissects the petition submitted by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which reads like an anti-global warming play book.
]]>A day after an 8.0 magnitude earthquake struck the Pacific territory of Samoa, killing 99, a 7.9 temblor flattened buildings, knocked out bridges, damaged an airport and killed at least 75 people in Sumatra, Indonesia.
This quake was about 375 miles from and occurred along the fault line that triggered the 9.1 earthquake and tsunami in the Indian Ocean near Java in 2004, which caused a tsunami and killed 232,000.
This is an area used to shaking and rolling. In February geologist Danny Hilman Natawidjaj warned that the city of Padang, near the epicenter of today’s quake, sits in front of an area with the “greatest potential for an 8.9 earthquake.”
Scientists and officials talk about today’s earthquake and tsunami.
An 8.0 magnitude earthquake shook the island of Samoa early today and triggered a tsunami that wiped out villages and has killed about 20 people with many more unaccounted for so far.
A tsunami warning for Hawaii and the west coast of the United States has been lifted.
Amy Wright Collects Samples While Diving, courtesy of Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institute at Florida Atlantic University
Cures to the most mundane and deadly illnesses have been found deep in the jungles, high in the mountains and hidden in the rainforests. But until recently not many scientists were looking to the ocean as another source of medicine.
But sponges, coral, snails and other marine creatures have a lot to offer the medical community. The small molecules that make them so adaptive to their harsh environments could give medical science an edge in fighting cancer, chronic pain and auto-immune diseases.
Story written and produced by Michelle Ma
2009 has been declared the Year of Science. A group of scientific organizations has formed a network to promote science to the public. With many milestones being celebrated next year, Year of Science 2009 will celebrate the people, the process and procedures of science.
To find out more visit:
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What’s the difference between a human and a prehistoric fish-like worm? Well, scientists are just beginning to answer that question.
It will likely take them years to figure it all out. But new research is already uncovering how genes evolve to perform different functions.
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Scientists and policymakers are urging immediate attention and research into a growing concern that the world’s oceans are becoming more acidic.
U.S. Senator Maria Cantwell held a field hearing in Seattle yesterday to stress the importance of learning more about this phenomenon that could threaten all fish and marine animals.
Congressman Jay Inslee thinks that ocean acidification is the first major sign of global warming. Here’s what he said at the hearingJay Inslee.
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Scientists are about to embark on a research mission to the Gakkel Ridge–one of the most remote seafloor locations in the world. It lies under the Arctic Ocean to the north of Greenland. Any animals that live there have been isolated from other species for millions of years. Biologists and oceanographers are hoping to find new species and get a look at what primordial Earth might have looked like. The 40-day expedition begins soon.
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Oh those happy feet can travel. Penguins have been spotted in waters off Washington, British Columbia and even Alaska. But how do they get so far from their Southern Hemisphere home? A University of Washington penguin biologist has the answer.
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